Turkey’s performance since 2000 has been impressive. Macroeconomic and fiscal stability were at the heart of its performance, enabling increased employment and incomes and making Turkey an upper-middle-income country. Poverty incidence halved over 2002–12, and extreme poverty fell even faster. During this time, Turkey urbanized dramatically, opened up to foreign trade and finance, harmonized many laws and regulations with European Union (EU) standards, and greatly expanded access to public services. It also recovered well from the global crisis of 2008/09.
Developments since 2012 raise concerns about Turkey’s capacity to sustain progress. Growth has slowed, per capita income has stagnated around US$9,000 per annum, unemployment is rising, and reform momentum has been uneven. Turkey’s macroeconomic achievements have also been challenged by an uncertain outlook.
Slow growth in Europe and a deteriorating geopolitical environment in its neighborhood have negatively impacted exports, investment, and growth. The influx of 3 million Syrian refugees in 2015–16 created new social, economic, and political demands, particularly in urban centers where most refugees are living.
The Government will need to take strong measures to address continuing structural vulnerabilities, revitalize private investment, boost growth, and resume Turkey’s convergence with Europe. Most notably, new momentum is needed to improve the quality of education and boost productivity.
