A new report prepared by the South Asia Regional Energy Partnership (SAREP) estimates India will reach an annual green hydrogen demand of 2.85 million metric tons (MMT) by 2030 if existing momentum in the public and private sectors for green hydrogen continues and announced projects get implemented. The report highlights that the fertilizer and export sectors will account for nearly 37% and 29% of the total 2.85 MMT green hydrogen demand, respectively.

To meet these estimates, India will require an investment of at least $57.6 billion. The report states India will need 62 GW of additional renewable energy capacity, 29 GW of electrolyzer capacity, and 11 MMT per annum of ammonia infrastructure by 2030. In the best-case scenario, where the country reaches an annual green hydrogen demand of 5 MMT by 2030, in line with the National Hydrogen Mission (NHM), the investment required would rise to $99.4 billion.

India’s renewable energy resources, including an installed capacity of 62+ GW solar and 42+ GW wind, existing hydrogen consumption markets and availability of suitable sites make the country well-positioned to become a green hydrogen production hub. According to the report, India can achieve the lowest levelized costs for green hydrogen and green ammonia, estimated at $3,800-4,800 per ton and $850-1,100 per ton, respectively.

The NHM has added further momentum to the growth of the green hydrogen sector in India. Under the mission, the country aims to produce at least 5 MMT/annum of green hydrogen by 2030. The best-case scenario assumes the government will introduce significant mandates, subsidies, and other incentives to drive demand in green hydrogen sub-sectors.

Several public sector undertakings (PSUs) in India have announced internal targets for the adoption of green hydrogen, which the report authors considered in arriving at their estimates for oil refining and natural gas blending industries.

The report emphasizes that green hydrogen can significantly reduce India’s carbon footprint, create new jobs and contribute to its energy security, and urges stakeholders to work together to seize the investment opportunities the green hydrogen sector presents.