SINGAPORE - Southeast Asia could become a net importer of fossil fuels in the next few years, raising the financial burden on governments and increasing carbon emissions in the region, the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned in a report.

This comes despite expectations of slower growth in the region’s energy demand as economies shift towards less energy-intensive manufacturing and services, and greater efficiency, the agency said in its annual Southeast Asia outlook.

Southeast Asia was already a net oil importer at 4 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2018, while strong growth in demand for natural gas has reduced the surplus of gas for export, the world’s energy watchdog said.

For coal, output from the region’s top producer, Indonesia, remained well above 400 million tonnes of coal equivalent last year but increases in domestic demand and exports to China and India could reduce its surplus, the IEA said.

“These trends point to Southeast Asia becoming a net importer of fossil fuels in the next few years,” the agency said.

The region’s overall surplus of supply over demand at 120 million tonnes of oil equivalent (mtoe) in 2011 had been eroded to just above 30 mtoe in 2018, it said.

Growing reliance on imports also raises concerns about energy security, the IEA said. For example, the region’s overall dependence on oil imports is forecast to exceed 80% in 2040, up from 65% today.

Southeast Asia’s current pathway is heading for rising energy import bills:

With no change in policy, Southeast Asia’s energy demand is expected to grow by 60% by 2040, accounting for 12% of the rise in global energy use as its economy more than doubles, the IEA said. This was slower than the region’s 80% growth since 2000.