The world's top exporter of thermal coal is on track to smash last year's record sales after projected shipments for the first two months of 2024 jumped nearly 25% from the same period in 2023.

Indonesian exports of thermal and thermal bituminous coal - used in power generation - are on track to top 90 million metric tons for January and February, up 24% from the same two months in 2023, ship tracking data from Kpler shows.

Indonesia annual coal exports to key markets

For 2023 as a whole, Indonesian exports scaled a new high of 504.6 million tons, so if the blistering pace of exports seen so far this year is sustained, 2024 will mark a new high for Indonesian exports of the high-polluting power fuel.

TOP DESTINATIONS & KNOWN UNKNOWNS

China, India, South Korea and the Philippines were the top markets for Indonesia coal so far this year, accounting for 33%, 15%, 5.8% and 5.1% respectively of the shipments so far.

Along with Japan, those markets were the top five destinations for Indonesian coal in 2023.

In volume terms, the 29.4 million tons shipped to China through February is nearly 9% less than shipped over the first two months of 2023.

However, Kpler ship-tracking data has assessed over 21 million tons of coal cargoes that have loaded or are being loaded but have yet to confirm their final destination on ship manifests.

Many of those cargoes are likely bound for China, the world's largest coal consumer, but may not be confirmed until after the Lunar New Year break is over.

Indonesia seasonal thermal coal exports to key markets

Shipments to India topped 13.5 million tons through February, which is the highest for that time slot since 2020.

India imported 100.85 million tons of Indonesian coal in total in 2023, and so far in 2024 Indonesian shipments are running around 3.5% ahead of the 2023 pace.