“Over 2024 and 2025, India accounts for 25 percent of total oil consumption growth globally,” the EIA noted in its November STEO.
The organization highlighted in the STEO that it expects consumption of liquid fuels in India to increase by 0.3 million barrels per day both this year and next year, “driven by rising demand for transportation fuels”.
“We expect an increase of 1.0 million barrels per day in global consumption of liquid fuels in 2024,” the EIA revealed in its November STEO.
“We expect even more growth next year, with global oil consumption rising by 1.2 million barrels per day,” it added.
The EIA pointed out in its STEO that non-OECD countries drive almost all global oil consumption growth in its forecast, noting that much of this growth is in Asia.
The organization projected that China’s petroleum and liquid fuels consumption will grow by less than 0.1 million barrels per day in 2024 “before recovering to almost 0.3 million barrels per day 2025”.
“We have revised China’s 2024 consumption downward several times over the past year,” the EIA highlighted in the STEO.
“In China, rapidly expanding electric vehicle ownership, rising use of liquefied natural gas for trucking goods, and decelerating economic growth have limited consumption growth for transportation fuels,” it added.
The EIA pointed out in its STEO that its 2024 and 2025 global consumption figures are “both below the pre-pandemic 10-year average of 1.5 million barrels per day of annual growth, as well as below the oil demand growth seen in the pandemic recovery from 2021 to 2023”.
In its latest STEO, the EIA projects that total consumption will come in at 103.13 million barrels per day in 2024 and 104.35 million barrels per day in 2025. This figure was 102.14 million barrels per day in 2023, according to the STEO.
Standard Chartered Demand Figures
In a report sent to Rigzone this week by Standard Chartered Bank Commodities Research Head Paul Horsnell, analysts at the bank, including Horsnell, revealed their “first estimate of global oil demand in September”.
“We calculate demand at 103.012 million barrels per day. June was the first month in which demand had ever exceeded 103 million barrels per day and September is the fourth consecutive month above that level,” they analysts stated in the report.
“The year on year increase in demand in September was 1.136 million barrels per day, below the year to date average of 1.332 million barrels per day but an improvement on August, when growth was just 0.631 million barrels per day,” they added.
In the report, the Standard Chartered Bank analysts said the November round of monthly balance reports brought little in the way of significant changes to 2025 outlooks.
“The International Energy Agency revised its 2025 global demand growth forecast 8,000 barrels per day lower to 0.99 million barrels per day, the Energy Information Administration’s forecast was lowered by 72,000 barrels per day to 1.219 million barrels per day, and the OPEC Secretariat forecast was lowered 103,000 barrels per day to 1.539 million barrels per day,” they stated.
“Our 2025 global demand growth forecast is closest to the EIA’s; we forecast growth of 1.297 million barrels per day, which is 74,000 barrels per day higher than our previous month’s forecast,” they continued.
The analysts stated in the report that the difference between their forecast and the IEA’s is well within statistical error margins but added that “it comes primarily from estimates for demand growth in China, India and the U.S., which we place about 100,000 barrels per day higher in each case”.
“Our forecasts are 301,000 barrels per day for China, 319,000 barrels per day for India, and 180,000 barrels per day for the United States,” they added.
JPM Demand Numbers
In a research note sent to Rigzone this week by the JPM Commodities Research team, analysts at J.P. Morgan said global oil demand averaged 103.6 million barrels per day during the first 19 days of November, “marking a year over year increase of 1.7 million barrels per day, in line with our expectations”.
The analysts highlighted in the note that, year to date, demand has risen by 1.2 million barrels per day compared with their November 2023 forecast of a 1.5 million barrel per day increase.
“Global oil demand recovered over the past week after experiencing a soft patch the previous week,” the analysts said in the note.
“U.S. gasoline demand trended lower, following seasonal norms, while distillate demand decreased as the weather remained warmer than normal. Meanwhile, air travel demand in the U.S. rebounded sharply, while Chinese daily flights remained unchanged,” they added.
“India saw a significant rise in travel and industrial demand, with diesel consumption expanding by 11 percent and gasoline sales increasing by 4.4 percent month over month during the first half of November,” they continued.
In a previous research note sent to Rigzone by the JPM Commodities Research team on October 30, J.P. Morgan analysts said global oil demand had averaged 103.4 million barrels month to date, “marking a 2.1 million barrel per day year over year increase and exceeding our estimates by 0.1 million barrels per day, primarily due to strong demand for distillates”.
“Year to date, demand has risen by 1.2 million barrels per day compared to our November 2023 forecast of a 1.5 million barrel per day increase,” the analysts highlighted in that note.
