Shipments of gasoline and blending components from the European Union and the UK to other regions are on track to climb to about 977,000 barrels a day this month, according to data from energy analytics firm Kpler. That’s 17% higher than October, when volumes plunged to the lowest since May 2020. Bigger flows to key markets in the US and West Africa buoyed November’s numbers.

European gasoline flows to the US picked up in recent weeks ahead of the demand surge expected during the Thanksgiving holidays, while inventories are at a multi-year low on a seasonal basis. Shipments to the US are poised to climb by 33% from the previous month to about 157,000 barrels a day, which would be the highest since August.

Elevated shipments to the trans-shipment and storage hub off Lome in Togo helped push European flows to West Africa to the highest in three months. Cargoes bound for Lome are almost 10 times higher than October levels, at more than 108,000 barrels a day. 

Europe’s gasoline flows to Nigeria, which plunged with the start-up of the mega Dangote refinery, also recovered this month to about 134,000 barrels a day. However, volumes are only about half of levels observed at the same time last year.

Unusually high shipments to Saudi Arabia also boosted European exports. About a 100,000 barrels a day sailed to the Yanbu and Jeddah ports along the Red Sea.

However, the recovery in exports may well prove to be fleeting, with flows expected to fall in the coming weeks.

“As the weather has turned colder in the US in recent days, driving miles will likely decline and gasoline demand will likely fall,” said Ajay Parmar, director of oil markets and energy transition at data intelligence firm ICIS. 

And the continuing ramp-up of gasoline production at the Dangote refinery “will weigh heavily on European refinery margins and likely lead to a reduction in EU gasoline exports,” Parmar said.