Courtesy of NREL.
The pledge also sets out a commitment to enhance grid capacity through a global goal of adding or refurbishing 25 million kilometres of grids by 2030. This is the first time a COP climate conference has brought clean flexibility onto the agenda.
Analysis by global energy think tank Ember finds that the 1,500 GW storage goal is not only achievable, but it is possible to exceed it significantly. It would require only 1 MW of storage for every 5 MW of renewables installed by the end of the decade. The supply chain is not a constraint: already by 2025, annual battery manufacturing capacity will have risen to supply the 1,500 GW goal eight times over by 2030. Additionally, a 39% reduction in lithium iron phosphate (LFP) battery cell prices over the past 12 months makes this even more achievable.
However, governments are not yet planning for the step up in batteries. We analysed national 2030 renewable capacity targets for 96 countries and the EU as a bloc, and out of these 96 countries, only 30 had some form of national storage target by October 2024. Currently these targets sum to only 284 GW by 2030 – less than a fifth of the proposed 1,500 GW global storage goal.
Of the 58 governments signing the pledge, Ember analysed 47 of their energy plans – and only 14 have a storage target in place.
14 countries that already have a national storage target, including Portugal and Chile, have not yet signed the global pledge.
Much of the developed world signed the pledge, including the majority of the OECD (25 of 38), including Germany, Italy, the UK, the US, Australia, Türkiye and Canada. The pledge also includes several Latin American countries (Brazil, Peru, Guatemala and Uruguay), African nations (Kenya, Morocco, Republic of Congo) and Asian countries (Pakistan, Japan, Korea, Singapore, Malaysia).
The 1,500 GW global target was previously endorsed by the G7 countries in April and is consistent with the International Energy Agency’s net zero pathway.
Countries that have yet to sign the pledge include some major economies in Asia (China, India, Indonesia, Viet Nam), South Africa, Russia and much of the Middle East (Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Qatar, Egypt).
The storage and grids goals are designed to help achieve the global tripling renewable capacity pledge signed by 133 countries last year. Several countries that signed the tripling renewables pledge have not yet signed onto the storage and grids pledge, including Chile, Ireland, Thailand and Portugal.
A report by the International Energy Agency, shows at least 3,000 GW of global renewable power projects, of which 1,500 GW are in advanced stages, are waiting in grid connection queues, and that is already slowing renewables deployment. While the storage goal seems possible, achieving the grid's target would require the build up rate to increase by double. Longer timescales, supply chain constraints and slow planning are major roadblocks that need to be overcome. The COP29 agreement on grids needs to be swiftly followed by urgent policy action and implementation by governments to enable rapid deployment.
Grids and storage are two solutions to clean flexibility, which is needed to integrate renewables quickly, efficiently and securely, and to spur electrification of transport, heating and industry. But there are more tools in the clean flexibility toolbox.
Ember has provided a clean flexibility explainer that shows how suppliers can become more flexible - ramping down coal, gas and sometimes renewable capacity as needed - and how dynamic pricing can help consumers benefit from cheaper electricity at times of renewables abundance.
“The sun and the wind will drive the global electricity transition” said Dave Jones, Global Insights Programme Director at Ember. “When we harness electricity from them, grids can take that electricity to where we need it, and storage takes it to when we need it. Today’s pledges on storage and grids are the first time clean flexibility has been on the agenda at COP. Clean flexibility is the enabler for a renewables-dominated electricity system.”
