India has become the primary driver of growth in global oil consumption for 2024 and 2025, surpassing China, which consistently led global oil consumption growth from 1998 to 2023, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).
Over 2024 and 2025, India is expected to account for 25% of total oil consumption growth globally. EIA expects an increase of 900,000 b/d in global consumption of liquid fuels in 2024. Even more growth is expected next year, with global oil consumption increasing by 1.3 million b/d.
Driven by rising demand for transportation fuels and fuels for home cooking, consumption of liquid fuels in India is forecast to increase by 220,000 b/d in 2024 and by 330,000 b/d in 2025. That growth is the most of any country in EIA’s forecast in each of the years.
EIA forecasts China’s liquid fuels consumption will grow by 90,000 b/d in 2024 before increasing by 250,000 b/d in 2025. In China, rapidly expanding electric vehicle ownership, rising use of LNG for trucking goods, a declining population, and decelerating economic growth have limited consumption growth for transportation fuels. Most of the growth in China is the result of increasing oil use for manufacturing petrochemicals.
Although India’s growth in percentage and volume terms exceeds China’s growth in the forecast, China still consumes significantly more oil. Total consumption of liquid fuels in India was 5.3 million b/d in 2023, while China consumed more than triple that amount at 16.4 million b/d in 2023.
