On January 21, below average temperatures led to a recorded peak hourly demand of 19,600 megawatts (MW) in ISO-New England (ISO-NE), the region’s grid operator.
Although demand was elevated, it was lower than the 20,308 MW that ISO-NE forecast peak demand would be in its 2024/2025 winter assessment, EIA said. However, a significant share of generating capacity to meet demand during this time came from sources that rarely operate.
Between the hours of 11:00 a.m. and 4:00 p.m. eastern time (ET) on January 20, and between the hours of 10:00 a.m. and 1:00 p.m. on January 21, oil-burning plants provided more electricity to the ISO-NE grid than gas burners, which is relatively uncommon. That group of oil burners provided more than 4,000 MW of electricity per hour to the grid between 7:00 a.m. and 11:00 p.m.
One of the two remaining coal-fired plants in the region, the Merrimack facility in New Hampshire, supplied close to 300 MW to the grid from the evening of January 19 to the morning of January 25, according to EIA.
From January 18 to 22, oil and coal offset curtailed generation from natural gas-fired plants. Natural gas prices were high and supply was tight due to increased demand from homes and businesses. Later in the week, additional natural gas supply from an LNG terminal in Everett, Massachusetts, helped boost generation from natural gas plants starting on January 22.
A recent study of the natural gas system in the northeast U.S. highlighted what the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) called “severe threats” to electric reliability in the region.
The study, conducted by the Northeast Power Coordinating Council (NPCC), focused on gas supply and pipeline constraints during extreme winter weather in New York and New England.
The region’s natural gas infrastructure is nearly fully utilized during extreme cold weather, the NPCC study called out, limiting gas availability and increasing reliance on oil-fired generation to ensure electric reliability. During milder weather, pipelines can accommodate ramping needs. However, certain events, like pipeline disruptions and protracted extreme weather, could pose major threats to reliability.
Uncertainty around renewable energy deployment, especially offshore wind, could heighten performance demands on thermal generation, NPCC said. The council said both ISO-NE and NYISO must balance grid resilience, decarbonization goals and incentives for gas and dual-fuel generators to maintain operational flexibility.
“NPCC’s report is a sobering assessment and yet another call to action in a region that is running close to the edge,” said Jim Robb, NERC president and CEO. “This untenable situation cannot be mitigated solely by electric system operators, calling out the urgent need for tight operational and planning coordination between the two sectors.”
EIA said that two other major sources of electricity in New England were steady suppliers during the January cold snap. The region’s three nuclear reactors steadily provided 3,350 MW of power during the period, joined by consistent imports of power from Canada.
At 11:00 p.m. on January 18, imports of electricity from Canada surpassed 4,200 MW and averaged 2,886 MW per hour between midnight on January 18 and midnight on January 26.
