The market downturn, spurred by Trump’s trade war and tariffs announced on April 2, has hit multiple industries, but shale oil feels particularly impacted. Half of the 20 worst-performing stocks in the S&P 500 since the tariff announcement belong to the oil, gas, and petrochemical sectors. Crude prices have dropped to their lowest in four years, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) falling about 23% since Trump’s inauguration, now lingering below $60 a barrel—a level oil executives say is insufficient for new wells to be profitable, according to a Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas survey.
Kirk Edwards, a former Petroleum Association chairman present at the tournament, captured the sentiment, stating: “I don’t know an industry that was more supportive of Trump than the oil and gas industry. People are in shock at how quickly he can get the price of oil down.” This unease stems from a disconnect between Trump’s aim to boost U.S. fossil fuel output and the effects of his trade strategy, which has dampened enthusiasm for increasing oil supply.
The situation worsened when OPEC and its allies, reacting shortly after the tariff announcement, vowed to triple a planned production increase originally set for May. Meanwhile, Trump has embraced the price drop, telling reporters in the Oval Office: “It’s going to be in the $2.50-a-gallon range — and maybe below that. We’re really doing amazing. I mean, we’re cutting prices.” Gasoline remains above $2.50 per gallon in most of the U.S., but his focus on lower fuel costs frustrates oil executives who rely on higher prices.
Some senior oil leaders, speaking anonymously, voiced mixed feelings. They value Trump’s efforts to reduce regulations and open federal lands for drilling but are dismayed by his push to lower oil prices, their core product. A March 26 survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas revealed similar concerns, with one shale executive anonymously labeling the tariff policy “a disaster for the commodity markets.” U.S. crude futures fell again, closing at $59.58 a barrel—the first time below $60 since 2021—reflecting ongoing market pressure.
