On April 10, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its updated Short-Term Energy Outlook, adjusting its 2025 projections for renewable diesel and biodiesel while increasing estimates for other biofuels, including sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). The revised forecasts reflect changes in production, consumption, and trade expectations for 2025 and 2026, based on current data and trends.

For renewable diesel, the EIA now projects production to average 220,000 barrels per day in 2025, slightly lower than the previous estimate of 230,000 barrels per day. The 2026 forecast remains steady at 250,000 barrels per day. Last year, production averaged 210,000 barrels per day. Regarding trade, net imports of renewable diesel are expected to be -10,000 barrels per day in both 2025 and 2026, a shift from the earlier projection of 20,000 barrels per day for 2025. In 2024, net imports stood at 30,000 barrels per day. On consumption, the EIA forecasts 210,000 barrels per day for 2025, down from 240,000 barrels per day in the prior outlook, with 2026 consumption adjusted to 250,000 barrels per day from 270,000. Last year’s consumption was 240,000 barrels per day.

Biodiesel production is anticipated to reach 90,000 barrels per day in 2025, down from the earlier estimate of 100,000 barrels per day, while the 2026 projection holds at 100,000 barrels per day. In 2024, production averaged 110,000 barrels per day. Net imports of biodiesel are expected to remain at zero for both 2025 and 2026, consistent with the previous outlook and down from 20,000 barrels per day in 2024. Biodiesel consumption for 2025 is now projected at 90,000 barrels per day, reduced from 100,000 barrels per day, while the 2026 forecast remains at 100,000 barrels per day. Consumption last year averaged 120,000 barrels per day.

The outlook for other biofuels, which include renewable heating oil, renewable jet fuel, renewable naphtha, renewable gasoline, and emerging biofuels, is more optimistic. Production is expected to rise to 50,000 barrels per day in 2025 and 60,000 barrels per day in 2026, up from prior forecasts of 40,000 and 50,000 barrels per day, respectively. In 2024, production was 20,000 barrels per day. Net exports for these biofuels are projected to remain at zero for both years, unchanged from last year and the previous outlook. Consumption of other biofuels is forecast to increase to 50,000 barrels per day in 2025 and 60,000 barrels per day in 2026, compared to earlier estimates of 40,000 and 50,000 barrels per day. Last year, consumption matched production at 20,000 barrels per day.

The EIA’s updated projections provide a balanced view of the evolving biofuel sector, reflecting adjustments in response to market and production trends.