Gold bars are stacked in the safe deposit boxes room of the Pro Aurum gold house in Munich, Germany, January 10, 2025.
The bank attributes the upward trend to robust demand from investors and central banks, averaging approximately 710 tonnes per quarter this year. It stated: "Underpinning our forecast for gold prices heading towards $4,000/oz next year is continued strong investor and central bank gold demand averaging around 710 tonnes a quarter on net this year."
Spot gold prices, which rose 29% this year, reached $3,500 per ounce for the first time on Tuesday, marking the 28th record high in 2025. Earlier this month, Goldman Sachs revised its gold price forecast for the end of 2025 to $3,700 per ounce, up from $3,300, noting that in extreme scenarios, prices could approach $4,500 per ounce by year-end.
A potential decline in gold prices could occur if central bank demand unexpectedly weakens, according to JP Morgan. Additionally, sustained U.S. economic growth resilient to trade challenges might lead to tighter monetary policies, reducing gold’s appeal. The bank explained: "More materially bearish would be a scenario where U.S. economic growth remains extremely resilient to tariffs allowing the Fed to turn much more proactive in fighting inflation risks, prompting markets to price in hikes even before worrying inflation actually arrives."
For silver, JP Morgan anticipates short-term challenges due to uncertainties in industrial demand. However, it expects silver prices to increase to $39 per ounce by the end of 2025, with stronger momentum projected for the second half of the year.
