A worker operates a heavy vehicle for unloading coal from the barge into a truck to be distributed, at the Karya Citra Nusantara port in North Jakarta, Indonesia, January 13, 2022.
Vasudev Pamnani, director at Indian coal trading company I-Energy Natural Resources, explained: “Higher CV coal is more expensive, but produces more energy for every dollar spent at current prices. One million tons of higher CV coal can replace 1.2–1.3 million tons or even 1.5 million tons from Indonesia.”
In China, Indonesian medium- and low-CV coal has faced competition from discounted Russian grades. Kpler analyst Zhiyuan Li noted that this trend has impacted Indonesia’s market share. In the first five months of 2025, Indonesia’s thermal coal exports to China dropped 12.9%, while Mongolian coal exports to China rose 44.8% and Australian volumes increased 3.4%.
South Africa has also expanded its presence in the Indian market. In the same period, its thermal coal exports rose 26.1%, while Indonesian supplies to India declined 14.3%. According to Indian trade data, South African and Mongolian coal have gained record market shares, displacing Indonesian shipments.
Ramli Ahmad, president director of Indonesian mining company Ombilin Energi, commented that Indonesian coal might regain market share if prices of higher CV coal rise due to external factors. However, he acknowledged that lower-CV coal will continue to face pressure as long as high-CV options remain competitive.
China and India have also diversified their coal imports. Chinese buyers increased purchases from Mongolia and Australia, while Indian traders sourced more high-grade coal from Kazakhstan, Colombia, Mozambique, and Tanzania. Tanzania entered the global coal market after 2022 and is emerging as a new source for Indian and Chinese buyers.
Despite falling thermal coal prices in China, Mongolian coal remains competitive. Xue Dingcui, an analyst at Mysteel, stated that stronger output and better efficiency would continue to support Mongolian export growth.
Indonesian and Australian coal price indexes, particularly those grades favored by Chinese buyers, have declined since October 2023. The Australian benchmark has fallen more sharply than the Indonesian one, increasing the competitiveness of Australian coal.
Overall, Chinese coal imports fell nearly 10% to 137.4 million tons in the January–May 2025 period. India’s coal imports dropped more than 5% to 74 million tons. Indonesian exports were the most affected, with shipments to China and India falling 12.3% and 14.3%, respectively. Indonesia's total coal exports declined 12% to 187 million tons, based on data from analytics firm Kpler.
In response, Indonesian mining companies are shifting focus to domestic consumption. The Indonesian Mining Services Association projects local coal deliveries to grow 3% this year, while exports are expected to decrease by around 10%.
