According to a forecast by consultancy Fastmarkets, China is expected to surpass Australia as the world’s leading lithium miner by 2026. The projection, announced at the Fastmarkets Lithium and Battery Raw Materials Conference in Las Vegas, highlights China’s growing influence in the global supply chain for battery metals, with dominance in over half of the minerals deemed critical by the U.S. Geological Survey. By 2035, China’s lithium production is anticipated to reach 900,000 metric tons, compared to 680,000 metric tons for Australia, 435,000 for Chile, and 380,000 for Argentina.

A view of a lithium mine in Yichun, Jiangxi province, China March 30, 2023.

Paul Lusty, head of battery raw materials research at Fastmarkets, stated: “China’s got a very clear strategy to develop its mineral resources.” In 2026, Chinese miners are projected to extract 8,000 to 10,000 more metric tons of lithium than Australian competitors, a significant increase from 2023 when China ranked third globally. This growth is largely driven by mining lepidolite, a hard rock ore abundant in southern China, though its extraction is costlier and can pose environmental challenges due to by-products like thallium and tantalum.

Despite low profitability, Chinese lithium producers have maintained operations, supported by local government incentives and a focus on preserving market share amid rising global demand for lithium. Lusty noted: “This continued production—despite the lack of profitability within the market—starts to make a lot more sense when you consider all those factors.” For instance, CATL, a major Chinese battery manufacturer, paused production at a key lepidolite mine in September 2024 but resumed operations in February 2025.

Australia, the world’s top lithium producer since 2017, has faced challenges with reduced production and delayed expansions due to a global decline in lithium prices. Meanwhile, China’s strategic focus on lithium has strengthened its position. Beyond mining, China holds approximately 70% of the global lithium refining market, processing the metal for battery cathodes. Fastmarkets predicts this share will decrease to 60% by 2035 as other countries expand their refining capabilities.

China’s influence also extends to the electric vehicle (EV) sector, with over 60% of global EV sales occurring in the country in 2024, according to LG Energy Solutions. The nation’s emphasis on lithium mining and refining supports its robust EV supply chain, positioning it as a key player in the global transition to sustainable energy. While environmental concerns persist with lepidolite mining, China’s continued investment in lithium production underscores its commitment to meeting growing demand for battery materials.