An airplane comes in for a landing above an Exxon sign at a gas station in the Chicago suburb of Norridge, Illinois, U.S., October 27, 2016.
The forecast informs Exxon’s long-term strategy, which includes an 18% production increase over the next five years, outpacing many global competitors. The company projects that oil demand will stabilize after 2030, remaining above 100 million barrels per day through 2050. Together, oil and natural gas are expected to constitute 55% of the global energy mix by 2050, a slight decrease from 56% in 2024.
Chris Birdsall, Exxon’s director of economics, energy, and strategic planning, highlighted the industrial sector’s role in driving natural gas demand during a press briefing: “It’s a great way to provide the industrial (power) that’s needed, but at the same time reduce some of the emissions challenges with coal.” This shift supports efforts to lower emissions while meeting energy demands.
While overall oil demand is projected to remain steady, Exxon anticipates a 25% decline in gasoline demand by 2050 due to the rise of electric vehicles. However, demand for distillates, used in commercial transportation and aviation, is expected to remain robust. Refineries will need to adjust to this evolving demand landscape, according to Birdsall.
Exxon also addressed global efforts to meet the United Nations’ 2050 emissions targets, which aim to limit temperature increases. The company projects global carbon dioxide emissions will drop to 27 billion metric tons by 2050, a 25% reduction from current levels, but still above the UN’s goal. Exxon emphasized the need for affordable technology and solutions to achieve further reductions, advocating for policies that maintain stable energy prices and reliable supply.
In a separate development, Wall Street’s main indexes saw gains on August 28, 2025, with the Dow achieving a record high close, reflecting positive market sentiment.
This outlook underscores the ongoing importance of natural gas in the global energy transition, balancing industrial growth with environmental considerations.
