Gold bars are seen at the Kazakhstan's National Bank vault in Almaty, Kazakhstan, September 30, 2016.
“Gold remains our highest conviction long for the year, and we see further upside as the market enters a Fed rate-cutting cycle,” said Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Strategy at JP Morgan. She noted that the anticipated shift in U.S. monetary policy, combined with broader macroeconomic uncertainty, provides favorable conditions for gold’s continued strength.
Gregory Shearer, Head of Base and Precious Metals Strategy at JP Morgan, added that the outlook is underpinned by a mix of economic and financial factors. He stated: “The combination of a Fed cutting cycle with overlays of stagflation anxiety, concerns around Fed independence, and broader debasement hedging supports gold’s upside.” These dynamics, he explained, are likely to sustain investor interest in gold as a store of value.
On currency trends, JP Morgan emphasized that recent movements in the U.S. dollar do not suggest “de-dollarization” or monetary debasement. Instead, analysts described the trend as a “dollar diversification story,” with foreign investors gradually reallocating portions of their U.S. asset holdings into gold. The shift, while measured, underscores gold’s appeal as a diversification and risk management asset amid evolving global financial conditions.
Kaneva also addressed the recent moderation in gold prices, describing it as a normal phase following sharp gains earlier in the year. “The pullback reflects the market digesting the rapid price gains since August,” she said. “It’s normal if you’re paralyzed with fear, because the price moved so fast ... It’s just a very clean story — you have a lot of buyers, and you have no sellers.”
She reiterated JP Morgan’s long-term projection of $6,000 per ounce by 2028, noting that investors should approach gold with a multi-year perspective rather than focusing on short-term fluctuations. The bank’s analysis suggests that structural factors, such as sustained central bank purchases, continued diversification from traditional assets, and macroeconomic uncertainty, will support gold’s upward trend over the coming years.
Spot gold has recorded multiple all-time highs this year, with the most recent peak of $4,381.21 per ounce reached on Monday. This represents an increase of nearly 57% year-to-date and positions gold for its strongest annual performance since 1979. JP Morgan analysts view this momentum as part of a broader revaluation of gold’s role in global markets amid shifting monetary and economic dynamics.
