The share of electricity generated by hydro sources has dropped from 74% in 2018 to 67% in 2023, while solar and wind sites have increased their combined share of Brazil's electricity generation pie from 9% to 22% over the same period.
Power firms have also sharply cut use of coal and natural gas-fired power plants for electricity since 2018, driving the share of fossil fuels in Brazil's electricity generation mix to a record low 7.6% last year.
Brazil's electricity system remains heavily reliant on hydro, but solar and wind farms are rapidly gaining share
As output from both hydro and renewables facilities hit new highs in 2023, Brazil's power producers were also able to expand total clean electricity generation a record last year - cementing the country's status as a global clean power leader.
HYDRO FOUNDATION
Despite the steady decline in overall power share, hydro dams remain the pillar of Brazil's electricity system.
For the opening two months of 2024, hydro dams accounted for roughly 71% of total electricity output.
Brazil's hydro power output hits new highs in early 2024, but takes up a decreasing share of total electricity output due to rapid growth in solar and wind farm production
That share is down from 74% at the start of 2023, but hydro is clearly the main engine of the country's power sector.
However, power producers have aggressively expanded the footprint of other clean generation sources, with combined generation capacity from solar and wind farms expanding by 180% from 2018 to 2022.
That renewables expansion compared with 5.1% growth in hydro capacity over the same period, and revealed a clear push by Brazilian power firms to diversify the country's power source base.
Utilities also expanded generation capacity from coal and natural gas plants from 2018 to 2022 (by 12.4% and 36.5% respectively).
But with total fossil fuel generation capacity under 15% of the total, it is clear that Brazilian power firms remain overwhelmingly focused on using clean sources of power to provide the majority of the country's electricity.
GROWTH PATH
Brazilian utilities have plans for the further expansion of clean generation sources, with 10.8 gigawatts (GW) of solar capacity, 4.9 GW of wind capacity, 1.15 GW of biomass capacity and 1.5 GW of hydro capacity slotted for addition in 2024, according to Brazil's power regulator Aneel.
Brazil clean vs fossil electricity generation
Some of those project plans have encountered delays so far this year due to a mix of construction, legal and permitting issues, as well as wrangling over power purchase agreements, Aneel has reported.
But given the strong backing by the central government for further expansions to clean power, and the heavy investment from private and public firms in accelerating the build out of Brazil's power grids, it is likely that total growth in Brazilian clean power output will continue in 2024 and beyond.
And with renewable capacity growth set to sharply exceed that of all other forms of electricity generation, the country's power system looks set to become both cleaner and more resilient as that capacity comes online - ensuring Brazil will remain a stand out clean energy powerhouse.
