EIA projected dry gas production will ease from a record 103.79 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in 2023 to 102.99 bcfd in 2024 as several producers reduce drilling activities after gas prices fell to a 3-1/2-year low in February and March.
In 2025, EIA projected output would rise to 104.79 bcfd.
The agency also projected domestic gas consumption would rise from a record 89.10 bcfd in 2023 to 89.31 bcfd in 2024 and 89.64 bcfd in 2025.
If the projections are correct, 2024 would be the first output decline since 2020 when the COVID-19 pandemic cut demand for the fuel. It would also be the first time demand increases for four years in a row since 2016.
The latest projections for 2024 were lower than EIA's April forecast of 103.58 bcfd for supply and 89.92 bcfd for demand.
The agency forecast average U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports would reach 12.10 bcfd in 2024 and 14.30 bcfd in 2025, up from a record 11.90 bcfd in 2023.
That was lower than EIA's 2024 LNG export forecast in April of 12.15 bcfd.
The agency projected U.S. coal production would fall from 581.6 million short tons in 2023 to 499.4 million tons in 2024, the lowest since 1963, and 493.6 million tons in 2025, also the lowest since 1963, as gas and renewable sources of power displace coal-fired plants.
The EIA projected carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuels would decline from 4.794 billion metric tons in 2023 to 4.783 billion metric tons in 2024 as coal use declines, and 4.743 billion metric tons in 2025 as all fossil fuel use declines.
That compares with 4.584 billion metric tons of CO2 in 2020, which was the lowest since 1983, as the pandemic sapped demand for energy.
