2024 is proving to be a significant year for photovoltaics in Italy, with numbers confirming sustained growth, even if with some fluctuations compared to previous months.

In July, 512 MW of new PV capacity was installed, bringing the total since the beginning of the year to 3,853 MW. These data reflect the country’s commitment to the energy transition, although there are evolving dynamics that deserve a more in-depth analysis.

What do these numbers indicate about the performance of the Italian photovoltaic market? And what are the implications for the future of solar energy in our country?

Increase in solar power, decrease in the number of plants

According to Terna data, Italy has seen a increase of 41.2% of photovoltaic power installed in the period January-July 2024 compared to the same period in 2023. However, in the same time interval, the number of new systems installed decreased by 17.5%.

In July 2024, 22,538 new plants were connected, but the overall number in the first seven months of the year is down compared to 2023. However, the additional installed capacity is 1,125 MW higher than last year, suggesting a growth towards larger plants.

An analysis of the different power bands reveals interesting trends: residential systems, with a power up to 12 kWprecorded a decline in both number (-19.9%) and installed power (-23.6%) compared to the first seven months of 2023. This data signals a reduction in enthusiasm for small domestic systems, perhaps due to changes in incentives or an already saturated market in some areas.

In contrast, the commercial-industrial (C&I) segment showed a strong increase, especially for systems between 20 and 200 kW and between 200 kW and 1 MW. This shift is indicative of a growing interest from companies, who see PV not only as an environmentally friendly solution, but also as an opportunity to significantly reduce energy costs.

The growth of large-scale solar power plants: a determining factor

2024 was marked by a significant increase in the installation of large-scale plants, those with a power greater than one megawatt.

As of July, 323 such plants have been installed, for a total of 1,413 MW, a figure that is more than 3.5 times higher than that recorded in the same period of 2023. This trend confirms the market direction towards large-scale projects, essential to achieving energy sustainability objectives at a national level.

Despite the focus on larger capacity plants, the vast majority of new plants (about 90%) continue to belong to the power range up to 12 kWp, typical of residential installations. However, if we consider the overall installed power, the smallest plants represent only 25% of the total, while those between 200 kW and 1 MW and between 1 and 10 MW cover 22% and 20% respectively.

These numbers highlight a highly polarized market, where large plants, despite being numerically inferior, contribute substantially to the total capacity.

At the end of July 2024, Italy reached a total photovoltaic capacity of 34,134 MW, distributed across 1,786,515 plants. In the last twelve months, installed capacity increased by 6,358 MW, with 333,051 new plants entering into operation.

These data confirm the vitality of the Italian photovoltaic sector, despite significant changes in market dynamics, with a clear shift towards larger plants. How will this trend evolve in the coming months and years? It will be interesting to observe how the market will continue to respond to the challenges and opportunities of the energy transition.

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