The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has revised its annual projections for the global expansion of nuclear power, marking the fourth year of a successive increase in capacity.
At the end of 2023, global nuclear capacity stood at 371.5GW, with 413 nuclear power reactors operational.
In the IAEA’s highest case scenario, nuclear electrical generating capacity is projected to increase to 950GW by 2050, bringing global capacity to slightly more than 2.5 times compared to 2023 with a 25% contribution from small modular reactors (SMRs).
In the lowest case projection, the IAEA expects capacity to rise 40% to 514GW with a 6% contribution from SMRs.
The report states that the high case scenario depends on enablers such as national policies, supporting investments, regulatory collaboration and emerging innovations such as nuclear fusion technology.
All operating reactors, potential lifetime extensions, possible power uprates, planned shutdowns and expected construction projects in the next few decades were considered in the IAEA’s estimates.
According to the organisation, around 30 “newcomer countries” are either considering or moving forward with plans to introduce nuclear power into their energy mix, while other countries are expanding and extending the lifetimes of existing nuclear power plants. For example, in April the IAEA cleared Japan’s Mihama nuclear power plant for a 60-year lifetime.
IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi commented: “The new projections reflect increasing acknowledgement of nuclear power as a clean and secure energy supply, as well as increasing interest in SMRs to target both electric and non-electric applications to meet climate goals and foster sustainable development.”
At the 2023 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP28) in Dubai, nuclear power was included for the first time in the Global Stocktake, which called for accelerating the deployment of low emission technologies.
In addition, France led a group of 20 countries at COP28 to sign a pledge to triple nuclear capacity by 2050 from 2020 levels.
