Fuel demand in the United States, the biggest destination for Canadian crude, is expected to rise next year as U.S. industrial activity will likely benefit from a cut in borrowing rates, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
Oil exports to the U.S. could slow, however, if incoming U.S. President Donald Trump follows through on his pledge to add a 25% tariff to Canadian goods unless Ottawa clamps down on the flow of illegal immigrants and drugs across the border.
Calgary, Alberta-based Suncor forecast 2025 production to be between 810,000 and 840,000 barrels per day (bpd) next year, a 4.4% rise at midpoint compared to projected output for 2024.
More noteworthy, BMO Capital Markets Analyst Randy Ollenberger said in a note, is that the company is well-positioned to beat its 2024 production guidance of 770,000-810,000 bpd "raising the question whether a repeat could occur in 2025."
Cenovus forecast a 4.4% increase in 2025 crude output, targeting 805,000 to 845,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, primarily driven by the start-up of the Narrows Lake oil sands project.
Imperial Oil, majority-owned by ExxonMobil Corp, expects a 3.1% production increase.
Canadian producers are benefiting from the start-up of the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion earlier this year, which has nearly tripled the flow of oil to Canada's Pacific Coast from landlocked Alberta, boosted the price of Canadian crude and opened up market access to refineries in Asia and the U.S. West Coast.
Suncor also forecast a slight rise in refinery throughput volumes to between 435,000 and 450,000 bpd in 2025. The company forecast capital spending for 2025 would fall 3% from this year to between $4.31 billion and $4.4 billion.
Imperial expects to spend $1.34 billion-$1.48 billion in 2025, above analysts' estimates, and also increased its 2024 capital expenditure by 9% to $1.3 billion.
Company CEO Brad Corson said the higher spending was mainly related to the timing of multi-year projects and opportunities such as additional drilling at its Cold Lake oil sands project.
"Where it makes sense for us to accelerate some of that work we're doing that, so we can be most efficient with the capital dollars," Corson told analysts on a call.
Imperial shares were last down 6% on the Toronto Stock Exchange at $68.77.
Suncor shares were last down 1.8% at $37.31, while Cenovus, which expects to keep 2025 capital spending broadly in line with 2024, dipped 0.7% to $14.64.
