Bakhodirjon Sidikov.

Photo: President's press service

Uzbekistan’s largest gas producer Uzbekneftegaz predicts a further drop in production to 26.5 billion cubic meters by 2025, marking a decrease of 2.8 billion cubic meters from this year’s forecast and 5.7 billion cubic meters compared to 2022 levels.

Uzbekneftegaz, the largest gas producer in Uzbekistan, plans to produce 26.5 billion cubic meters of natural gas in 2025, Uzbekistan 24 TV channel reported, citing chairperson of Uzbekneftegaz Bakhodirjon Sidikov. On 19 December, he presented plans for the upcoming year to president Shavkat Mirziyoyev.

The announced volume is 2.8 billion cubic meters less than the forecast for this year (29.3 billion) and 5.7 billion less than what was produced in 2022 (32.2 billion).

To achieve this “target” (as shown in the presentation), the company plans to commission new wells and refurbish existing ones.

At the meeting with the president, it was noted that the transformation of Uzbekneftegaz was scheduled to continue, with key objectives being an 8% reduction in production costs and improving the company’s international credit rating.

In 2025, Uzbekneftegaz plans to attract $2 billion in foreign loans to finance production and geological exploration projects.This winter season, Uzbekistan’s consumers are expected to receive 21 billion cubic meters of gas.

Uzbekistan 24 reported an increase in gas production (it is not specified compared to which period) and achieving a daily production volume of 76 million cubic meters, as well as meeting the energy demands of the population and the economy.

According to official data from the Statistics Agency, gas production at major enterprises in Uzbekistan in October decreased to 3.6 billion cubic meters, which is 5% (189.7 million cubic meters) less than in October 2023 (3.79 billion) and 14.8% less than in September 2022 (4.23 billion).

In January-October, production volumes amounted to 37.1 billion cubic meters, which is 4.8% or 1.87 billion cubic meters less than in the same period last year. Compared to the same period in 2019 (50.1 billion), the decline amounts to 13 billion cubic meters. This exceeds the annual volume of gas consumption by the population (as of 2022).

Gas imports to Uzbekistan since the beginning of the year reached $1.36 billion, which is 2.4 times more than in the first 10 months of 2023. Earlier, Russia and Turkmenistan announced plans to increase gas supplies to Uzbekistan.

At the same time, exports of gas increased to $540.4 million (+17.9%). The government previously announced plans to halt gas exports by 2025.

Decline in gas production at Uzbekneftegaz

Gas production at fields and joint projects of Uzbekneftegaz has been declining year by year.

In 2022, the company’s production forecast was 34 billion cubic meters, but the actual result was 32.2 billion cubic meters. Uzbekneftegaz lowered its natural gas production forecast for 2023 — from 34.1 billion to 32.3 billion cubic meters.

According to the state program, the plan for 2024 was set at 29.3 billion cubic meters of gas. Responsible for achieving this goal, in addition to Uzbekneftegaz, are the private company Sanoat Energetika Guruhi (Saneg), private oil and gas companies and other foreign enterprises working with Uzbekneftegaz under production-sharing agreements (Lukoil, Gazprom, Gas Project Development Central Asia AG).

Former first deputy chairperson of Uzbekneftegaz Bekhzod Usmanov in November 2022 revealed production forecasts up to 2026. According to the presented graph (above), natural production at current fields will continue to decline, as maintaining production at the level of 34.1 billion cubic meters in 2024 requires compensating for 4.6 billion cubic meters of gas through geological exploration. By 2025, an additional 7.1 billion cubic meters will need to be sourced, rising to 9.6 billion cubic meters by 2026 to maintain production levels.

As of the end of 2023, the net profit of Uzbekneftegaz decreased by more than half to 611.6 billion soums, and over the past three years, the indicator fell fivefold. Gazeta.uz earlier wrote that Uzbekneftegaz was investing hundreds of millions of dollars to increase gas production, but its output continued to decline.