An oil tank is pictured in the Permian basin, Loco Hills regions, New Mexico, U.S., April 6, 2023.
The adjustment reflects a cautious stance, based on production trends observed in early 2025. The ministry’s document highlights that the new estimate considers the progress of strategic projects and the potential addition of new fields, depending on exploration outcomes. A treasury department official, Ascertain clarified that the figures account for crude oil and condensate output from both the state-owned Pemex and private firms operating in Mexico.
Pemex, the leading producer, continues to dominate the sector, a position reinforced by a recent energy reform. Despite this, the company has struggled to reverse a steady production decline. Official data indicates that output, including contributions from partners, averaged 1.619 million bpd in January and February 2025. Pemex faces significant challenges, including a heavy debt load amounting to tens of billions of dollars owed to financial institutions and suppliers.
The government remains optimistic, stating: “New contracting schemes with private companies will support Pemex in boosting production.” This approach aims to help the state firm achieve the 1.8 million bpd target. The finance ministry emphasized that the revised forecast adopts a “prudent approach,” aligning expectations with current realities while allowing room for growth through ongoing and future projects.
This update provides a clearer picture of Mexico’s oil production landscape for 2025. It balances the country’s ambitions with practical considerations, ensuring the forecast remains grounded in data from the year’s opening months. The inclusion of both Pemex and private company outputs offers a comprehensive view, while the focus on new initiatives signals efforts to address longstanding issues in the sector.
