Earlier, on February 10, China applied a 15% tariff on US coal and LNG imports. A trader based in China commented: “The series of tariffs and counter-tariffs introduced by the US and China may influence coal prices through fluctuations in the exchange rate.” If the exchange rate shifts unfavorably against the dollar, importing coal could become costlier for Asian buyers, raising market prices and possibly reducing demand.
Some manufacturing firms might cut output due to higher costs from these tariffs, passing expenses upstream, sources suggest. Another trader in China noted: “China’s tariffs are not merely retaliatory; they are intended to protect national interests.” They expressed hope that the US would reconsider its tariff approach.
Interestingly, thermal coal suppliers might benefit. An Indonesia-based producer said: “Maybe in a month or two, there will be increased reliance on coal for power production in Asian countries amid inflated production costs.” In China, if import prices rise too high, domestic coal could fill the gap. Analyst Pat See Khoo from S&P Global Commodity Insights added: “In 2024, China imported only 1.5 million mt of US thermal coal, which can easily be displaced by domestic coal.”
The tariffs also affect petcoke demand. After strong US petcoke purchases in early 2025, Chinese interest dropped by mid-March. The new 34% tariff is expected to further reduce demand for US petcoke, pushing China toward alternatives like Russia. Saudi petcoke’s high sulfur content and Venezuela’s inconsistent quality and delivery make them less appealing options.
In India, petcoke traders anticipate more US shipments redirected their way. An India-based trader remarked: “As limited US cargoes will be heading to China due to tariffs, more volumes would be diverted to India, pressuring prices.” Meanwhile, China’s petcoke imports from the US hit 1.7 million mt in Q1 2025, up 29.4% from the prior quarter, showing proactive stockpiling before tensions escalated. February and March imports reached 0.7 million mt, the highest since April 2024.
Platts assessed FOB US Gulf Coast High Sulfur petcoke at $76.85/mt on average for February-March, rising from $67.55/mt a year earlier, with the latest price at $80.25/mt on April 2. China’s domestic production and strategic reserves help cushion the impact, maintaining supply stability despite shifting trade patterns.
