The U.S. Energy Information Administration expects the U.S. regular gasoline retail price to drop this year and next year, according to its latest short term energy outlook.
The EIA also provided a breakdown of quarterly gasoline price projections. For 2025, the average price is expected to be $3.16 per gallon in Q2, $3.12 per gallon in Q3, and $2.99 per gallon in Q4. In 2026, the price is predicted to be $2.96 per gallon in Q1, followed by $3.16 per gallon in Q2, $3.17 per gallon in Q3, and $2.96 per gallon in Q4.
In comparison, the previous STEO, released in April, had projected gasoline prices of $3.09 per gallon in 2025 and $3.11 per gallon in 2026, slightly higher than the current forecast. The EIA noted that the expected reduction in gasoline prices is largely due to lower crude oil prices.
The EIA’s May 13 fuel update revealed that the average U.S. regular gasoline price was $3.12 per gallon on May 12, a decrease of $0.488 compared to the same time last year. The highest gasoline prices were found in the West Coast region, at $4.22 per gallon, while the lowest prices were in the Gulf Coast, at $2.69 per gallon.
On May 14, the AAA Fuel Prices website reported an average regular gasoline price of $3.18 per gallon, down from $3.61 per gallon one year ago. The highest recorded price for regular gasoline in the U.S. was $5.02 per gallon on June 14, 2022.
The EIA's analysis also provided insight into the breakdown of costs in a gallon of gasoline. In March 2025, it estimated that 54% of the gasoline price would be attributed to crude oil costs, 17% to taxes, 16% to distribution and marketing, and 14% to refining costs. This contrasts with the March 2024 breakdown, where crude oil costs accounted for 56%, refining costs for 19%, taxes for 15%, and distribution and marketing for 10%.
