Drewry’s spot index, released on May 18, 2025, confirmed the upward trend. Freight rates from Shanghai to New York climbed 19%, or $704, to $4,350 per forty-foot equivalent unit (FEU), and rates from Shanghai to Los Angeles grew 16%, or $423, to $3,136 per FEU. Drewry noted: “Following the latest US–China trade developments, Drewry expects an increase in Transpacific spot rates in the coming week due to shortage in capacity.”
Starting May 14, 2025, cargo shipped from China to the U.S. faces a reduced 30% tariff, down from the previous 145% rate applied for six weeks. The U.S. and China announced this tariff de-escalation on May 12, 2025, providing a temporary relief period of 90 days to facilitate trade.
HSBC’s container report, issued on May 18, 2025, highlighted potential challenges: “While we expect carriers to reactivate capacity and deploy bigger ships in the transpacific, we note that repositioning boxes and vessels following the recent steep capacity withdrawals could take time.” The report cautioned that this could lead to port congestion and landside logistics bottlenecks, similar to disruptions seen during the COVID-19 pandemic.
HSBC anticipates that planned rate increases for mid-May and early June 2025 will hold, supported by rising share prices of global shipping liners, which have surpassed levels seen before the tariff relief announcement. This reflects an improved outlook for the shipping industry, driven by increased demand for consumer goods transportation.
The surge in freight rates and capacity adjustments underscore the dynamic response to the temporary tariff reduction, enabling smoother trade flows for exports from China to meet U.S. consumption needs. The situation highlights the importance of efficient logistics management to avoid delays and maintain supply chain stability.
