A view of the Mild Hydrocracking Unit (MHC) at the Dangote Petroleum Refinery in Lagos, Nigeria, July 20, 2024.
U.S. crude oil exports to Nigeria reached 111,000 b/d in February and rose to 169,000 b/d in March. Meanwhile, U.S. imports from Nigeria, which were 133,000 b/d in January, dropped to 54,000 b/d in February and 72,000 b/d in March. The reduction in imports was primarily due to scheduled maintenance at the Phillips 66 Bayway refinery in New Jersey. Imports later increased in April as the Bayway refinery resumed normal operations and the Dangote refinery experienced some unplanned maintenance.
Analysts view this trade shift as temporary. “This trend seems more a snapshot of a very fluid market, rather than a permanent realignment,” said Eli Tesfaye, senior market strategist at RJO Futures. He highlighted that Nigeria’s refinery operations and challenges in securing domestic crude supplies contributed to these trade flows. Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst at UBS, noted: “The new refinery in Nigeria and some issues in securing domestic supplies played a role for those unique flows earlier this year. But going forward, with the refinery now aiming to secure domestic flows, and probably looking at other crude grades, it is difficult to forecast if the volume flowing from the U.S. to Nigeria will persist.”
This development is significant as it marks the first time the U.S. has exported more crude oil to Nigeria than it imported. Nigeria, traditionally a key supplier, ranked as the ninth-largest source of U.S. crude oil imports in 2024. The change reflects evolving global oil market dynamics, influenced by new refinery capacities and regional supply adjustments.
