For the 2024-25 U.S. soybean market, the USDA anticipates increased imports and higher soybean crush, set at 4.42 billion bushels, up by 10 million bushels. This rise is driven by greater domestic demand for soybean meal and increased soybean oil exports, supported by current export commitments. However, soybean ending stocks are expected to decrease by 5 million bushels to 375 million due to these dynamics.
Soybean oil use for biofuel production is now projected at 13.25 billion pounds for 2024-25, down from the March estimate of 13.45 billion pounds. This adjustment reflects slower usage earlier in the year, though stronger demand is expected later due to tariffs affecting imports of alternative biofuel feedstocks, such as used cooking oil. For comparison, 12.989 billion pounds of soybean oil were used for biofuels in 2023-24, up from 12.51 billion pounds in 2022-23.
The USDA maintained the average soybean price for 2024-25 at $9.95 per bushel. Soybean meal prices were reduced by $10 to $300 per short ton, while soybean oil prices increased by 2 cents to 45 cents per pound, aligning with market conditions.
On a global scale, the 2024-25 soybean outlook includes higher beginning stocks, slightly lower production, and increased exports, crush, and ending stocks. Global beginning stocks rose by 2.7 million tons, primarily due to a revised 2023-24 crop estimate for Brazil, now set at 154.5 million tons, up by 1.5 million tons. Global soybean production dipped by 200,000 tons, with reduced output in Bolivia partially offset by gains in South Africa, the United Arab Emirates, and the European Union.
Global soybean crush is projected to rise by 2 million tons to 354.8 million, driven by increased processing in Brazil, Argentina, Ukraine, and the U.S. Higher soybean meal availability and lower prices have boosted global consumption, supported by reduced supplies of alternative oilseed meals. Global soybean exports are expected to increase by 200,000 tons to 182.1 million, with higher shipments from Canada and Nigeria, though Ukraine’s exports are slightly lower.
Global soybean ending stocks are forecast to grow by 1.1 million tons to 122.5 million, mainly due to increased stocks in Brazil and the European Union. These projections reflect ongoing efforts to meet global demand for soybean products while adapting to evolving market conditions.
