For 2025-’26, U.S. soybean supplies are projected to decline slightly, less than 1%, due to a smaller crop of 4.34 billion bushels, driven by lower yields and reduced planting area. Despite higher beginning stocks, lower production and exports contribute to the modest supply drop. Soybean crush is expected to rise to 2.49 billion bushels, up 70 million from 2024-’25, fueled by increased soybean meal demand and exports.
Soybean oil exports for 2025-’26 are forecasted to decrease due to ample global supplies of palm, sunflowerseed, and rapeseed oils, while U.S. soybean oil stocks are projected to grow by 6%. Ending soybean stocks for 2025-’26 are estimated at 295 million bushels, down 55 million from 2024-’25. The average soybean price is projected at $10.25 per bushel, up from $9.95, with soybean meal at $310 per short ton and soybean oil at 46 cents per pound.
Globally, soybean production for 2025-’26 is expected to reach 426.8 million tons, a 1% increase, with higher output in Brazil, Paraguay, Russia, and China offsetting declines in the U.S., Canada, Argentina, Ukraine, and Uruguay. Brazil’s production is forecasted at a record 175 million tons, up 6 million, while Argentina’s output is projected at 48.5 million tons, down slightly due to a shift to corn.
Global soybean crush is anticipated to rise 3% to 366.5 million tons, with significant growth in China, the U.S., Brazil, and several other countries. Soybean exports are projected to increase 4% to 188.4 million tons, led by an 8.5-million-ton rise from South American producers, offsetting lower U.S. exports. Global imports are expected to grow, particularly in China, where imports are forecasted at 112 million tons, up 4 million. Global ending stocks are projected to rise to 124.3 million tons, driven by higher stocks in Brazil and Argentina.
