The figure is down on the 2.6 GW of new capacity installed in 2023 but still represents the lion’s share of additions added across Africa last year.
Dr Rethabile Melamu, CEO of SAPVIA, told evolution of the South African energy supply industry drove the adoption of renewable energy in 2024, after demand drove the market the year prior in response to load shedding. “The energy supply industry restructuring alongside regulatory reforms in South Africa has led to the proliferation of private sector project development and deployment for bi-later PPA’s and energy trader/aggregator applications,” Melamu said. “This will continue to be the biggest driver of growth of the large-scale PV market over the next two years.”
Private procurement has been leading the development of South Africa’s utility-scale pipeline since the beginning of 2023, Melamu explained. A total 2,738 MW across 384 projects, of all capacity sizes, were registered with the national energy regulator in 2023, followed by 2,880 MW across 454 projects in 2024. Melamu said these projects are at various stages of operation, construction and financial close, with a large portion of those registered over the last two years scheduled to become operational in 2025 or 2026.
Meanwhile, public procurement of utility-scale projects has continued, with six utility-scale solar projects, for a total 708 MW, reaching financial close across 2023 and 2024. Melamu said these projects will enter into construction in early 2025, with 75 MW already under construction.
The seventh round of South Africa’s Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Program (REIPPPP) took place last year, which Melamu told resulted in 1760 MW of capacity across eight projects at an average tariff of $0.0252/kWh. These projects are expected to reach financial close in early 2026, before entering into construction throughout that year.
South Africa’s healthy development pipeline means SAPVIA is expecting annual solar additions to increase in the coming years. The association is forecasting approximately 2.5 GW to 3 GW of new solar capacity this year, through a mixture of private and public procurement, increasing to a forecasted 3.5 GW to 4 GW in 2026.
Melamu added the establishment of a wholesale electricity market, slated for implementation in 2031 at the earliest, alongside investment in transmission infrastructure, will further drive growth in the large-scale slar PV market in the next two to five years.
Elsewhere, cost declines in solar and battery energy storage system (BESS) technology are expected to bring an increase to solar and BESS deployment in South Africa’s C&I market, Melamu said, alongside factors including grid insecurity due to ageing municipal distribution and BESS benefits such as tariff arbitrage and peak demand management.
Melamu also said that although the number of residential solar and BESS installations slowed in 2024 when compared to 2023, tax incentives and feed-in credit schemes are being evaluated by national and local governments to help drive adoption among middle and low income households specifically.
