Estonia added 513 MW of new solar capacity in 2024, a record for a single year, according to Eesti Taastuvenergia Koda.

The total significantly exceeds the 282 MW installed in 2023, bringing Estonia’s cumulative solar capacity to 1,325 MW, the association reported.

Silver Sillak, director of Eesti Taastuvenergia Koda, told that declining solar technology costs, financial support from solar auctions, and an electricity shortfall caused by reduced oil shale production due to high CO2 prices have driven the market.

Sillak noted that Estonia's solar projects have expanded to the point that the country recorded 236 hours of zero or negative electricity prices last year.

“On one hand this means that the market is now already somewhat saturated and the rapid growth will likely stop soon,” Sillak explained, adding that future electricity auctions will only feature wind and not solar, as wind capacity is lagging behind but can offer more production in winter months. “On the other hand, most new solar parks are combined with battery storage which makes the business case more favorable.”

Sillak added that predictions set by his association and Estonia’s Ministry of Climate, that expected the country to reach 1.5 GW of solar by the end of the decade, will “probably turn out to be more conservative than reality.” He suggested that if combined with battery storage, an optimistic scenario for Estonia’s solar future capacity could reach between 2.5 GW and 3.5 GW in the coming decades.

When asked if there are any regulatory changes that could improve the Estonian solar market, Sillak said better standardization and regulation of power purchase agreements (PPAs) in the European Union would make agreements easier for companies and enhance renewables development.

“Generally PPAs are difficult to implement in Estonia because the market is very small and there are very few large corporate or industrial consumers,” Sillak explained. “The larger problem in the EU is that it is also almost impossible to agree PPAs between companies from different electricity spot price ranges, for example between an Estonian producer and Latvian or Finnish consumer.”

Estonia completed several major solar projects in 2024, including the 77.53 MW Kirkmäe solar farm, developed by Estonian energy company Evecon and French asset manager Mirova. Billed as the Baltics’ largest PV project when it opened in October, the plant generates enough electricity to power 35,000 homes per year.

In November, Estonian independent power producer Sunly said it had started building a 244 MW solar plant in the country. It is set to begin operations in fall 2026.

Estonia aims to generate all its electricity from renewable sources by 2030.