The European Union is expected to see a significant recovery, with production rising by 13.9 million tonnes due to improved weather conditions. Russia anticipates a 2% increase in its crop, driven by better yields. Canada’s production is forecast at 36 million tonnes, marking its second-largest harvest, while the U.S. crop is expected to decline due to reduced planting area. Argentina is projected to benefit from favorable harvests, assuming normal weather. However, Australia’s output is expected to decrease due to lower harvested area and yields.
Global wheat imports are set to rise, with Egypt maintaining its position as the top importer at 13 million tonnes in the 2025-26 season, up 500,000 tonnes from 2024-25. The USDA noted: “Egypt continues to implement its long-standing bread subsidy program, while the private sector also accounts for a significant portion of imports.” Egypt will also continue exporting wheat flour to neighboring countries like Sudan.
In Asia, wheat imports are expected to grow, led by China, which is projected to import 6 million tonnes in 2025-26, up from 3.3 million tonnes the previous year. Southeast Asia’s demand is rising, particularly in Indonesia, the region’s largest importer, where imports are forecast at 12 million tonnes, a 500,000-tonne increase. The USDA stated: “Increased consumption with strong growth for instant noodle and other wheat products are seen as driving the lift in Indonesia’s demand.” The Philippines, South Korea, and Vietnam are also expected to see higher imports, while Japan’s imports remain stable at 5.45 million tonnes.
India is projected to produce a record 117 million tonnes, with stocks expected to grow due to an improved harvest. Bangladesh’s imports are forecast to rise to 7 million tonnes, driven by population growth and higher per-capita consumption. Brazil’s imports are expected to drop to 6.7 million tonnes due to increased domestic production, while Mexico anticipates record imports due to its lowest production in over 50 years.
These trends support global wheat consumption needs, with countries like China and Indonesia driving demand through increased domestic use, while export-focused nations like Egypt and India bolster regional supply chains.
