A drone view shows a canola field flowers, on a farm near Blaine Lake, Saskatchewan, Canada, July 19, 2025.
China, the world’s largest importer of canola, relies heavily on Canadian supplies for its aquaculture feed and cooking oil needs. In 2024, Canada exported approximately C$5 billion ($3.64 billion) worth of canola to China. The new duty significantly impacts this trade, with Canola Council of Canada President Chris Davison stating: “The Chinese market is effectively closed to the Canadian canola industry, and this is a market that was valued at just under $5 billion.”
The announcement led to a sharp decline in ICE November canola futures, dropping up to 6.5% to a four-month low. Tony Tryhuk, a trader at RBC Dominion Securities, remarked: “This really came as a surprise and a shock.” A Singapore-based oilseed trader added: “This is huge. Who will pay a 75% deposit to bring Canadian canola to China? It is like telling Canada that we don’t need your canola, thank you very much.”
Analysts suggest replacing Canada’s canola supply will be challenging. Trivium China agriculture analyst Even Rogers Pay noted: “This move … will put additional pressure on Canada’s government to sort through trade frictions with China.” Australia, the second-largest canola exporter, may gain market access with test cargoes in 2025, but CM Navigator analyst Donatas Jankauskas said: “Fully replacing Canadian canola will be very difficult unless import demand drops sharply.”
Canadian canola farmers, preparing for the 2025 harvest, face potential price suppression. Canadian Canola Growers Association President Rick White commented: “It’s going to certainly have a damping effect on price for farmers and they’re going to be stuck with that.” The industry remains hopeful about meeting China’s demand, with Davison noting: “I think the expectation would be that they could not meet those needs with a quality of a product and the volume that we provide.”
A final ruling on the duty, expected by September 2025, could adjust or remove the 75.8% rate, with a possible six-month extension for the investigation. Separately, China initiated an anti-dumping probe into Canadian pea starch and imposed duties on halogenated butyl rubber imports. Canada’s trade and agriculture offices have not yet responded to the developments.
