Last month's deals encompassed 500,000 to 600,000 tonnes, primarily from the Black Sea region, with a focus on Russia, for delivery during September and October. Subsequent private transactions have added volumes from Romania, France, Bulgaria, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan, scheduled for arrival in October, November, and December. Approximately 250,000 tonnes from the initial batch have already been unloaded at Egyptian ports, ensuring timely integration into local distribution networks.
The inclusion of Kazakh wheat represents a notable development, being the first such purchase in over 15 years. This move highlights Egypt's efforts to broaden its sourcing base, particularly as Kazakhstan emerges as a viable option amid occasional global supply challenges. As a landlocked producer, Kazakhstan typically routes shipments through Black Sea facilities, providing an efficient alternative for diversified imports.
Mostakbal Misr, meaning Future of Egypt, assumed responsibility for state grain procurement late last year, succeeding the General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC). While GASC relied on international tenders for wheat and vegetable oils, Mostakbal Misr emphasizes private agreements, often facilitated by domestic importers. This approach aligns with a rising role for the private sector in Egypt's wheat trade over the last three years, driven by expanded wheat flour production for exports to African and Middle Eastern markets, as well as supply to local bakeries and cafes specializing in premium flour products.
In the first eight months of 2025, private entities handled 69 percent of total wheat imports, benefiting from favorable economic conditions and competitive global pricing that improved profitability. Since the July 1 marketing year start, their share has climbed to about 76 percent, while state involvement has decreased to 24 percent—the lowest in over two decades.
Egypt's domestic wheat output for the 2025-26 season, ending in June, is projected at 9.2 million tonnes from 1.33 million hectares, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Foreign Agricultural Service. This follows 9 million tonnes from 1.3 million hectares in 2024-25 and 8.9 million tonnes from 1.35 million hectares in 2023-24. Planting occurs in November with harvest in April, influenced heavily by government-set procurement prices that incentivize farmer participation.
In March, authorities set voluntary supply terms for the 2025 harvest to GASC from mid-April through mid-August, offering prices from $277.20 to $290.40 per tonne based on quality and moisture levels. By August 15, roughly 3.94 million tonnes of milling wheat had been acquired, plus minor amounts of durum and seed varieties for state agricultural research programs.
With a population of 108 million projected to reach 124 million by 2030, per the Central Agency for Public Mobilisation and Statistics, wheat demand continues to rise. The Foreign Agricultural Service estimates 20.3 million tonnes for 2025-26, up from 20 million tonnes the prior year. Food, seed, and industrial uses account for 19.3 million tonnes, with stockfeed at one million tonnes. This includes one million tonnes of wheat flour exports, reduced from 1.3 million tonnes last season due to requirements for full U.S. dollar deposits in designated Egyptian banks before shipment, prioritizing local availability.
Flour exports target Africa and the Middle East, including areas like Gaza and Sudan, though Sudan's resumed milling operations have prompted Egyptian suppliers to explore alternative destinations. Despite a slight dip in wheat-based food intake from 2024-25 inflation, private-sector baked goods and flatbreads remain cost-effective staples. Easing inflation has stabilized demand for cereals and baked items.
These dynamics signal higher import needs for 2025-26, with the USDA forecasting 13 million tonnes in its September update, positioning Egypt as the global leader, surpassing Indonesia by one million tonnes and Algeria by four million tonnes. This exceeds the 12.4 million tonnes imported in each of the previous two years, 11.2 million tonnes in 2022-23, and 11.3 million tonnes in 2021-22.
In 2024-25, Russia supplied 8.3 million tonnes—two-thirds of the total—followed by Ukraine at 2.1 million tonnes and EU countries at 1.74 million tonnes combined. First-quarter 2025-26 imports reached 3.3 million tonnes, down over 600,000 tonnes from the year-earlier period.
