The analyst forecasts that actual 2026 production will exceed USDA estimates by roughly one million head for pork and beef combined. Private forecasts have already been adjusted upward from June 2026 onward, in line with projections issued in September and October 2025.
The USDA is expected to make substantial upward revisions to its future reports, possibly not until January 2027 or later, with the scale of the correction likely to surprise market participants. Similar underestimation of supply trends has occurred since early to mid-2024, requiring repeated catch-up adjustments.
Market discussion continues to focus on the extent of the 2026 production decline. The analyst notes that the core supply dynamics remain consistent with those observed in 2022, 2023, and 2024. While prices may strengthen during spring or summer 2026, attention should increasingly turn from autumn 2025 to identifying the low point of the cycle, the influence of rising imports, and the timing of subsequent production growth from mid-2026.
One key factor that could moderate an anticipated early price rally is the expected resumption of cattle flows from Mexico this winter. This development would allow feedlots to shorten finishing periods and release approximately 300,000 head that have been held on extended feeding programmes for the past 18 months, adding meaningful supply to the market.
The analyst concludes that continued reliance on historical slaughter data alone raises questions about the practical value of the USDA's forecasts for industry planning and risk management.
