The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) released its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report on May 12, 2025, projecting record-high U.S. corn production for 2025 at 15.82 billion bushels, a 6% increase from 2024’s 14.867 billion bushels. This estimate, based on a harvested area of 87.4 million acres and a yield of 181 bushels per acre, slightly exceeded trade expectations. The projected planted area of 95.3 million acres would be the highest in over a decade.

U.S. corn exports for the 2025-26 season are forecasted at 2.675 billion bushels, up 2.9% from 2.6 billion bushels in 2024-25, reinforcing the U.S. as the world’s leading corn exporter. Corn carryover on September 1, 2026, is estimated at 1.8 billion bushels, a 27% rise from 1.415 billion bushels in 2025, though below trade estimates. The average farm price is projected at $4.20 per bushel, down 3.4% from the previous year.

Patrick Sparks, vice president of Global Risk Management, Inc., commented: “The US feed usage and exports were stronger than expected, especially for export, where the USDA was very aggressive, leading to the lower-than-expected ending stocks number on new-crop corn.” He added: “US corn export sales continue to be strong, with the US well positioned for nearby shipment in the world market.”

Global corn production for 2025-26 is projected at a record 1.265 billion tonnes, with a carryover of 277.8 million tonnes, down 3.5% from the prior year. The USDA maintained Argentina’s 2024-25 corn production estimate at 50 million tonnes and increased Brazil’s to 130 million tonnes, up 4 million tonnes. Sparks noted: “Brazil’s corn crop was raised 4 million tonnes today, with the safrinha crop looking good, and early yields from Argentina’s harvest have been solid.”

Corn demand remains strong, with Mexico, the top importer, accounting for $5.6 billion in U.S. corn exports in 2024, tariff-free under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement. Japan, the second-largest importer at $2.8 billion, indicated potential increased purchases on May 12, 2025, per Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s remarks. Sparks observed: “Like any year, it comes down to weather. A 181-bushel-per-acre yield is a high mark, and with record demand forecasts from the USDA to go with it, prices will react quickly to any summer weather threat.”

The report’s release coincided with a 90-day tariff reduction agreement with China, lowering U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports to 30% and China’s on U.S. imports to 10% until August 2025. Sparks remarked: “The news with China was much more aggressive than expected. In terms of corn trade, I’m not sure it changes much short term, as they weren’t buying US corn this season anyway.”